By Joshua Tosin Ogunsakin 
Nigeria recorded an estimated N5.13tn oil revenue windfall in March and April as crude prices surged following tensions linked to the United States–Iran crisis, pushing earnings far above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget benchmark.
According to a report by The Punch, the surge in oil prices which rose from below $70 per barrel before the crisis to over $120 at some point drove the windfall, even as production remained below target.
The report showed that while the government’s benchmark projected about N163.42bn daily revenue, actual earnings rose significantly, with March generating about N1.19tn above projections and April contributing N3.94tn, bringing the total windfall to N5.13tn.
Despite these gains, Nigerians are facing worsening hardship as fuel prices continue to rise in response to higher crude costs, with petrol selling between N1,350 and N1,400 per litre in many areas.
Speaking with The Punch, the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, said the government was making more gains from crude oil but had yet to translate them into relief for citizens.
He said, “The government is not making any statements about the rising petrol prices, so it’s worrisome. At least, the government could come up with some measures. We are making some gains now on the price of crude oil. The government can give some back to reduce the cost of transportation so that food will not be expensive, along with a few other things. That’s what we have advised.”
He warned that petrol prices could climb above N1,500 per litre if the crisis persists.
“If you go back to our predictions, I stated it there because Mr Trump is not very clear as to what he wants, in my opinion; if it is to decimate the Iranian nuclear facility or if it is to take over the crude oil as they are taking over Venezuela’s. I don’t think we know what he wants exactly. So we are not sure we are seeing the end of that crisis,” he said.
Energy economist, Professor Adeola Adenikinju, also noted that the situation presents mixed outcomes for Nigeria, combining higher government revenue with rising cost of living.
“This is the time that Nigeria should say, ‘Look, we are sending some cash to those poor people who are vulnerable,” he said.
“If we have the data of all the poor people, this is the time that Nigeria should send some cash to those who are vulnerable, but we don’t have the data,” he added.
Analysts noted that while the windfall provides short-term fiscal relief, it underscores Nigeria’s dependence on volatile global oil prices, with citizens bearing the burden through higher fuel and transportation costs.